Reform UK is on course for a historic landslide on Thursday’s local elections, with Lord Hayward’s projection putting the party at 1,550 seats won, Labour losing as many as 1,850 and the Conservatives losing 600.
Labour is now polling at 19%, down from the mid-20s a year ago, and is defending 2,557 of the 5,000 English council seats up for grabs.
Polling markets now price the probability of Sir Keir Starmer leaving Downing Street by the end of the year at 66.5%.
Labour is also expected to lose Wales for the first time in 26 years, with Reform competing with Plaid Cymru to become the largest party in Cardiff Bay.
Starmer’s spokesman framed the vote as a choice between “Labour and Nigel Farage”, but the polling suggests the country has already chosen.
Russian Strikes Kill 22 Hours Before Putin’s “Truce”
Russian missile and drone strikes killed at least 22 people across Ukraine on Tuesday, just hours before Vladimir Putin’s unilateral two-day Victory Day “ceasefire” was
6 May 2026
